Real estate market 2026: forecast, interest rates and what that means for sellers

Where do we stand mid-2026?

The Dutch commercial real estate market has had a few tough years. Between 2022 and 2024, transaction volumes fell by more than 40%, mainly due to increased interest rates. Investors sat on their hands, buyers waited for better times, and sellers postponed their plans.

In the second half of 2025, the tide turned. The ECB lowered interest rates in stages, banks became somewhat more flexible with financing, and the first signs of price recovery became visible. Mid-2026, we see the first real upward movement in transaction volumes — cautious, but unmistakable.

The interest rate picture

The ECB policy rate currently stands around 2.25%. Mortgage rates for commercial real estate range between 4.2% and 5.5%, depending on LTV (loan-to-value), term, and the asset. Compared to the peak in early 2024 (rates above 6%), that is a significant improvement.

For a buyer, this means that financing costs are 15 to 25% lower than two years ago. Concretely: a property of €1 million with 60% financing saves easily €10,000 to €15,000 in annual interest costs. That space becomes immediately available for a higher purchase price.

What are the yields doing?

The BAR (Gross Initial Yield) factors for various segments as of July 2026:

Translated: prime logistics and student housing are becoming more expensive (higher price for the owner), while secondary offices and B/C retail are becoming cheaper. The polarisation continues.

What does this mean for you as a seller?

Do you own prime real estate? Feel free to sell. Prices are attractive, there is demand, and the transaction pace is increasing.

Do you own secondary real estate? Be realistic with the price. A good dossier and a fair asking price make the difference between a sale within three months and one that takes more than a year.

Are you doubting the timing? Many macroeconomists expect interest rates to fall further in 2027, possibly towards 1.5%. But waiting also involves risk. A reasonable price now is often better than a top price 'someday'.

The role of politics and regulation

Keep one eye on political developments. Discussions about Box 3, possible adjustments to the transfer tax (currently 10.4% for non-residential properties), and stricter sustainability requirements can influence the market in the short term. Those who own a property that still sells acceptably under current rules would be wise not to wait too long.

Are you unsure about your situation? Request a no-obligation offer and we will calculate together what selling now or later means for your property.